Salam buat semua mantee Pendita Emas,
Perbicaraan hari ini, PE ingin mengupas mengapa kita perlu membeli emas fizikal sekarang?
Harga emas dijangka menyentuh paras harga support USD1500/aun buat seketika.
Pada hari ini Pendita Emas ingin membicarakan hal pergerakan harga emas semasa pada minggu-minggu akan datang bermula pada minggu bertarikh 7 Mei hingga 11 Mei 2012. Jika benar harga support USD1500 disentuh adalah satu perkara yang menggimbarakan untuk pelabur emas jangka panjang.
Beberapa perkara fudamental semasa ekonomi minggu hadapan bakal mempengaruhi permintaan emas dunia.
Hasil survey Kitco
Hasil survey kitco untuk harga emas sepanjang minggu hadapan sebagai berikut:
Beberapa jangkaan ke atas fundamental pasaran minggu hadapan yang akan menyebabkan harga emas merudum dapat disenaraikan sebagai berikut:
1. Hasil pilihanraya Presiden di Perancis bakal mengubah suasana ekonomi dan polisi moniteri seterusnya mempengaruhi era penutupan model penjimatan hutang negara berdaulat ciptaan Jerman.
2. Jika regim baru memenangi pilihanraya, matawang Euro akan mengalami masalah dan akan menyusut berbanding USD seterusnya membawa sama harga emas ke bawah nilai, bukan untuk seminggu tetapi berminggu-minggu. http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_may04.2012.html
3. Laporan senarai data-data US di bawah jika positif, nilai USD meningkat manakala harga emas dunia mengalami penyusutan.
4. Kesan ekonomi dunia yang lain.
Faktor kenaikan harga emas minggu hadapan
Laporan data US pada Jumaat 4 Mei 2012
Walau bagaimanapun beberapa pakar telah memilih harga emas akan naik disebabkan oleh tindakan US berdasarkan laporan nonfarm payroll di atas kelihatan merosot mengikut laporan pada Jumaat lepas dengan sasaran dicapai sekadar 115,000 dpd 163,000 sahaja yang akan menjadi asas Federal Reserve membuat pengumuman quantitative easing ke tiga (QE3). http://www.kitco.com/kgs/goldsurvey_may04.2012.html
HARAPAN HARGA EMAS BERADA PADA PARAS USD1750 SETERUSNYA BERADA PADA PARAS USD2000 DAN USD2500/OZ
Mengikut lakaran harga emas yang Pendita Emas lakaran menggunakan graf di atas, harga emas perlu melepasi USD1750 dalam 6 minggu lagi selepas pergolakan ekonomi Eropah dan US mengalami tranformasi dasar monitari dalam megunjurkan pergerakan ekonomi yang lebih sihat.
Ini bermakna minggu pertama Julai 2012 atau suku tahun ke-3 dan suku tahun ke-4 dipastikan pelabur emas bakal menikmati kenaikan harga emas. Jika berlaku ia akan menjadi bonus kepada pelabur-pelabur emas fizikal dan saham ETF.
Salah satu perlaksanaannya ialah percetakan matawang USD dan EURO. Kedua-dua percetakan matawang ini akan memberi impak kepada harga emas dunia. Tetapi kena ingat, kenaikan harga emas terlalu pantas dan akan mengalami penurunan mengikut keadaan ekonomi pada masa depan.
SASARAN HARGA EMAS USD2000-USD3200
Permintaan emas bermusim di India meningkat
Berdasarkan beberapa artikel yang Pendita Emas baca pada pagi ini, PE telah menemui berita yang dianggap baik berkenaan masa depan harga emas iaitu berita berkenaan kenaikan harga emas fizikal akibat peningkatan permintaan perayaan bermusim sempena perayaan Akshaya Tritiya di India. Menurut kepercayaan tradisi masyarakat India pemilikan emas fizikal akan memberikan kemakmuran hidup pemiliknya.
According to the Times of India:
Pelbagaikan simpanan wang fiat anda.Gold prices set yet another record high of Rs 29,690 per 10 gm in the national capital on Tuesday on rising wedding season demand amid a firming global trend. Gold which had gained Rs 700 in last nine days rose further by Rs 100 to Rs 29,690 per 10 gm, a level never seen before.
WANG UNTUK KEBEBASAN
SAHAM EMAS CPS
EMAS FIZIKAL
Marilah kita mempelbagaikan usaha membuat wang dari pelbagai sumber. Emas adalah segalanya. Buatlah pembelian pelbagai stok (emas) secara terus atau online disebabkan online telah menjadi model menjana wang seantero dunia. Usah mempersoalkan kekuatan online. Lakukanlah sehingga wang di pasaran mengalami kekeringan, seterusnya menjelmakan inflasi yang sudah pasti seterusnya membawa pelbagai krisis kewangan dan keruntuhan ekonomi. Menjana kewangan peribadi sangat mudah. Pilihan kena bijak.
"Problem is simple. Keep making money in stocks until the money printing system is dry, inflation is rampant, and [we have] another financial crisis and economic collapse. That’s the play." — Richard Michael Abraham, Wall Street Journal comment section
Kesan pilihanraya Perancis 6 Mei 2012 (Ahad)
Kesan pilihanraya di Perancis dan Greek menjadi tumpuan utama pakar ekonomi diseluruh dunia. Ini disebabkan akan ada pelbagai perubahan ekonomi domestik membawa langsung kepada berakhirnya model penjimatan yang sedang dikuatkuasakan olej Eropah dan Jerman. Dalam kes ini, ramai pakar ekonomi membuat spekulasi bahawa pencetakan dan lambakan matawang EURO akan berada dipasaran.
The Fate of the Eurozone Hangs on Sunday's French Elections
By Martin Hutchinson, Global Investing Strategist
It now looks as though Nicolas Sarkozy's days are numbered. In the balance lies the fate of the Eurozone itself.
It appears Socialist Francois Hollande will win the French election runoff on Sunday and that June's legislative elections will give the Socialists a powerful position in France's parliament. Added to these developments is the good chance that both the major existing parties in Greece's parliament, which had jointly agreed to the bailout deal, will be voted out of office on Sunday as well and replaced by a motley set of far-lefties.
So while the Eurozone has been quiet this week, the calm is deceptive with the elections on Sunday. Meanwhile, most of the worry in the Eurozone centers on Spain - which is quite foolish. Spain recently elected a center-right government with a large majority, which is clearing up the mess left by its predecessors. The country does have a 25% unemployment rate, but that's a function of Spanish labor law and excessive welfare payments, both of which the current government is addressing.
Spain's budget deficit is also smaller than France's, as is its debt level. In fact, Spain's debt and deficit burdens are lower than both Britain and the United States. Spain is not the issue.
Considerable Danger in the Eurozone
As for Greece, it is a shambles.
The truth is it should have been chucked out of the Eurozone two years ago, when it was first revealed that its governments had been consistently lying about its budget numbers. Had that happened, the new drachma would have sunk to about a third of its former value, and Greek living standards would have reduced by half, all without anything but market forces to be blamed.
Now hundreds of billions of euros have been poured into the country, and its ungrateful electorate is determined to elect every nut-job it can rake up. The whole Greek rescue project has been a complete waste of time and money, and should be ended forthwith. Fortunately, throwing Greece out of the Eurozone will not destroy the euro - after all, nobody was relying on the strength of the Greek economy in their calculations of the euro's value.
However, France is a different matter entirely. Unlike Greece, if France gets into serious trouble, the remaining "solid" euro economies led by Germany are not big enough to save it. And, led by Hollande, France looks to be in considerable danger.
Laporan buruk data buruh Jumaat lepas (4 Mei 2012) 114,000/163,000
Fed telah menyatakan bahawa QE3 akan dibuat semakan semula selepas laporan data buruh yang berakhir pada April 2012. Ini bermakna cetakan USD akan dilakukan semula seterusnya mempengaruhi nilai emas dunia.
The U.S. labor force didn’t reach expectations and only slightly expanded during April: according to the recent U.S. employment report, which was published today, May 4th by the Bureau of Labor Statistics the number of non-farm employees rose by only 115,000. The main sectors that expanded during April were in professional and business services, retail sales and health care but declined in transportations and warehousing. The rate of unemployment edged down to 8.1% – the lowest level in recent years.
The chart below presents the revised figures of the number of non-farm employees added to the labor market during the past couple of years (up to April 2012). The change in number of non-farm employment was the lowest in the past six months. Furthermore, the change in non-farm payroll was revised up for March from +120k to +154k.
As I have calculated in the past, the number of non-farm payroll employment needed to join the labor market on an average monthly scale to keep up with the growth of the U.S. civilian labor force is at least 107,000 (see red line in the chart below). This means that the increase in employment during April reaches this number but just barley. This is a sharp drop from the big numbers we got used to between December 2011 and February 2012.
Following the rise in employment the rate of U.S. unemployment edged down tot 8.1%. The rate ofunemployment is still at its lowest level in recent years as seen in the chart below. The currentunemployment rate is 1.7 percent points lower than its rate in November 2010.
Furthermore, the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) slightly declined during April.
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