Sunday, November 27, 2011

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12.00pm tanggal 27 November 2011

Gangguan harga emas sepanjang minggu 28/11/11 hingga 2/12/11

Perlu Baca dan Fahami : Kembalinya Kemelesetan Ekonomi Seperti Tahun 2008

By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

It's still all about Europe. The deteriorating situation has been affecting all of the markets, but the failure of the super-committee to reach a compromise on U.S. debt is now weighing in too.

The end result has been uncertainty, volatile market swings, risk aversion, vulnerability and growing demand for safe havens.

Increasingly, we're hearing more talk about a 2008 repeat and this is indeed a possibility. In fact, more signs are starting to point in that direction...

Aside from the slowing Western economies, the U.S. and global stock markets have technically turned bearish. And if the Dow Industrials DJIA -0.23% now stays below 11700, the bear market will remain in force, signaling stocks are headed lower.

The gold price has also been declining, along with stocks and commodities, since hitting its record high in September. And while gold is still in a major bull market above $1500, as events in Europe have intensified, it hasn’t been the safe haven of choice.

That honor goes to U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar, which continue moving higher.

This is what happened in 2007-08 and the markets provided signals prior to the meltdown ... With the debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. now reaching nerve wracking levels as the daily drama continues, the stage is essentially set for some sort of accident that could dramatically affect all of the markets. Hopefully, it won't happen, but it could.

WHAT TO DO?

Over the years, we've found that the major market trends are by far the most important in maintaining perspective and maximizing profits. These drown out short-term movements, which can be confusing, and keep you focused on the big picture.

Currently, the major uptrends favor U.S. bonds and gold. Even though gold could decline further, if it does, it'll provide a good buying opportunity. As for cash, the U.S. dollar is best.

The major trends do not favor stocks, commodities or the currency markets. These major trends are down.

This could change, but for now we'd focus on major uptrend investments and avoid or cut back on markets where the trends are down.

Remember, sometimes it's best to simply stand aside and this appears to be one of those times.

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Gold ends lower as stocks fizzle

1:53 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Claudia Assis

Gold futures ended lower Friday, as gains for stocks and oil futures fizzled and but a rising U.S. dollar kept the metal under $1,700 an ounce. Other metals tracked gold lower, with silver bearing the brunt of the losses.

Gold settles 0.6% lower at $1,685.70 an ounce

1:00 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011

Gold settles 0.6% lower at $1,685.70 an ounce

Canadian stocks rise, led by real estate sector

12:13 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Wallace Witkowski

Canadian stocks rise, led by real estate sector. SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Canadian stocks traded higher Friday led by the real estate sector. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.1% led by the S&P/TSX Capped Real Estate Index, which advanced

Gold turns higher, up 0.1% at $1,698 an ounce

10:42 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011

Gold turns higher, up 0.1% at $1,698 an ounce

U.S. stock futures drop on euro-zone worries

9:00 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By MarketWatch

Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce Goldfutures drop below $1,700 an ounce on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rises against other major currencies and stock futures point to opening losses for Wall Street.

U.S. stock futures drop on euro-zone worries

8:35 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Polya Lesova

In the commodity markets, December gold futures dropped $19 to $1,676.9 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.

Italy auction, Black Friday in the spotlight

7:59 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By MarketWatch

Metals Stocks: Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rises against other major currencies and stock futures point to opening losses for Wall Street.

6 turkeys to keep off your investing table

12:01 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Chuck Jaffe

Gold, for example, looks like a strong investment, but average investors don’t need to take a chance on some junior mining penny-stock pitched in an e-mail. They should not risk coming up with fool’s goldwhen the real thing is what they want. 6) Spokespeople who don’t like answering questions Recently I was at a conference and walked up to a booth in the exhibit hall.

Hate financials? Hedge funds love ‘em

12:01 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - MarketWatch.com

There are also 45 hedge funds with positions in Gold ETF

Gold futures extend falls in Asian trading

1:45 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - By Virginia Harrison

Gold futures extend falls in Asian trading . Gold futures extend declines, and most other metals trade down ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.. Gold futures extend declines, and most other metals trade down ahead of the Thanksgiving

Antofagasta Ebitda off; copper prices drop

6:17 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - MarketWatch

During the first nine months of the year, Antofagasta reported a 32% revenue rise to $4.17 billion, mainly reflecting the impact of higher realized copper prices and copper volumes compared with the same period in 2010, as well as higher volumes of gold sales.

Another Christian letter gives thanks

2:33 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - By Peter Brimelow

The best/worst results in recent years illustrate that the short-term moves can be breathtaking.” Sound Mind’s inflation hedge recommendation: Gamco Gold Fund American Century Real Estate Fund Investor PowerShares Dynamic Energy Sector Portfolio BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund

Giving thanks for investing’s slow lane

9:46 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By MarketWatch

Going for mutual-fund gold Morningstar's new mutual-fund ratings grade more than just past performance, and that's good for investors, Marketwatch Columnist Chuck Jaffe says.

U.S. stocks sharply lower on Europe fears

5:00 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By MarketWatch

Gold ends at loss but off session lows Gold futures finish lower ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, engulfed by concerns surrounding Germany’s failed bond auction as metals traders wouldn’t get behind safe-haven buying.

Canada stocks drop on Europe, China woes

4:55 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By Nicole Hong

Metals and mining stocks led decliners in Toronto, as prices of gold, silver and copper futures all dropped.

10 PERKARA MENJAWAB MENGAPA SAHAM EMAS MELEMAH PADA MINGGU 21-25/11/11

Nov. 26, 2011, 4:20 p.m. EST

MarketWatch’s top stories of the week, Nov. 21-25

By MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — It was a holiday-shortened week for stocks and the markets came up short, losing ground for the third week out of the last four. Even the post-Thanksgiving buzz over holiday shopping failed to excite equities.

Here are the top 10 stories on MarketWatch that shaped the week of Nov. 21-25:

1. Economic Report: Third-quarter growth cut to 2% from 2.5%

The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than originally estimated in the third quarter, mainly because companies reduced inventories and did not invest as much.

The Commerce Department cut its estimate of gross domestic product to 2.0% from a first reading of 2.5%. The government’s second revision of GDP includes data not fully available earlier, such as inventory levels and trade data. As a result, it paints a more accurate picture of U.S. growth.Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the government to trim its estimate to 2.3%.

2. Number of U.S. banks in distress declines

Federal regulators say the number of U.S. banks in financial distress continues to decline, a trend that coincides with the ninth consecutive profitable quarter in the banking industry. At the end of the third quarter there were 844 “problem” institutions, down from the 865 problem institutions at the end of the second quarter, and less than the 888 on the list at the end of the first quarter, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. reported Tuesday.

Names of banks on the list are withheld. It is unclear whether the reduction in troubled banks on the list is a result of institutional failures or improvements. In the third quarter there were 26 bank failures and 21 banks dropped off the problem bank list. In the second quarter there were 22 bank failures and 23 banks came off the problem bank list. It is possible that a bank fails so fast that it is never on the problem list.

3. Market Extra: Poor German auction shows crisis hitting core

An auction of German government bonds technically failed Wednesday, underlining fears that the long-running crisis in European sovereign debt now threatens the core of the euro zone.

“It was awful,” said Nick Stamenkovic, fixed-income economist at RIA Capital in Edinburgh. The sale of 6 billion euros ($8.1 billion) of 10-year government bonds, known as bunds, attracted bids totaling just €3.889 billion. The Bundesbank, which conducts auctions on behalf of the Germany’s federal debt agency, accepted €3.644 billion in bids. That left the central bank to pick up the slack, retaining €2.356 billion of the supply, or 39% of the total amount on offer.

4. Trading Deck: When in doubt, follow the masters

The art of investing is an exercise in making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. But today, it seems that the cloud of uncertainty is a little thicker than usual. Despite having two years to discount the likelihood and consequences of default by one or multiple “PIIGS,” the market’s persistent volatility shows that investors are as uncertain as ever.

During times like these, I like to do what your college professor might have called “cheating.” I like to look over the shoulders of other investors and see what they are doing. With all of this said, today I’m going to take a look at the portfolios of three of my favorite institutional investors: Mohnish Pabrai, Joel Greenblatt, and Prem Watsa.

5. Irwin Kellner: Signs of life in the U.S. economy

Although you wouldn’t know it from the way the stock market has been behaving over the past month, the economic outlook appears to be brightening.

Prosperity may not yet be just around the corner, but a growing number of economic statistics suggest that growth is shifting into a higher gear.

It’s not “Happy Days are Here Again.” It’s not even “Morning in America.” Rather, it’s more like the glass is no longer half empty — it’s half full.

What makes this step-up in economic activity even more interesting is that it is occurring just the way the textbooks say it should.

6. Economic Report: China manufacturing gauge shows contraction

HSBC’s preliminary China manufacturing survey fell to a 32-month low in November, well below analysts’ forecasts, with the reading signaling that the sector is now contracting.The Purchasing Managers Index printed at 48 on a 100-point scale, reversing from a mildly expansionary reading of 51 in October, HSBC reported Wednesday. Consensus forecasts had called for a 50.1 result, just above the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction, according to CNBC.

HSBC economist Hongbin Qu said the data implied that industrial production would moderate to annualized growth rates of 11% to 12% in the coming months as domestic and external demand cools.He also said, however, that there was little in the data to suggest a major contraction was underway in China.

7. Peter Brimelow: Christian letter among 2011 top performers

Well, who’s being thanked anyway?

Just as I predicted, reader comment on my news that a 2011 top performer was an explicitly Christian letter, Christian Value Investor, was decidedly Christophobic. So, buoyed by this popular demand, I’m celebrating Thanksgiving by writing about another explicitly Christian letter: Sound Mind Investing.

Actually, as with Christian Value Investor, Sound Mind Investing is solidly based on secular investment principles. And it has a strong long-term performance.

8. Marsh on Monday: The euro must be split up

The world’s greatest macroeconomic imbalances are not between the U.S. and China, as many believe, but within the not-so-united states of Europe.

This is just one result of the currency and competitive distortions caused by what German Chancellor Angela Merkel calls the “common destiny” of economic and monetary union. Destabilizing European current-account imbalances will need to be eliminated, sooner or later, by splitting up the euro area into a creditor and a debtor group.

9. 6 turkeys to keep off your investing table

When you write about stupid investments, you sit at the head of a big Thanksgiving table of stocks, mutual funds, insurance policies, and other products that give folks reason to expect a return on their money. And like everyone else, I count my blessings at this time of year.

As the guy who writes Stupid Investment of the Week. I’m thankful for the offerings I see in the investment world that qualify under some definition of the word “stupid.” These are products that are lacking normal intelligence, not clever, dazed, foolish, irrational, senseless, doltish, dim-witted, addlepated, and obtuse — for starters. Here are things which, as Stupid Investment of the Week columnist, I am particularly thankful for — but that anyone else would find unappetizing.

10. Black Friday, Blue Stock Market

Hoping that the Black Friday reports are particularly good, showing robust consumer demand?You might want to hope for something else. That’s because the initial reports of how retailers are doing on Black Friday are an unreliable guide to how the stock market performs through the end of the year. In fact, more often than not, it’s been a bad omen whenever those initial reports are especially positive and stocks soar.

Read mor Mark Hulbert.