Sunday, November 27, 2011

Perlu Baca dan Fahami : Kembalinya Kemelesetan Ekonomi Seperti Tahun 2008


By Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

It's still all about Europe. The deteriorating situation has been affecting all of the markets, but the failure of the super-committee to reach a compromise on U.S. debt is now weighing in too.

The end result has been uncertainty, volatile market swings, risk aversion, vulnerability and growing demand for safe havens.

Increasingly, we're hearing more talk about a 2008 repeat and this is indeed a possibility. In fact, more signs are starting to point in that direction...

Aside from the slowing Western economies, the U.S. and global stock markets have technically turned bearish. And if the Dow Industrials DJIA -0.23% now stays below 11700, the bear market will remain in force, signaling stocks are headed lower.

The gold price has also been declining, along with stocks and commodities, since hitting its record high in September. And while gold is still in a major bull market above $1500, as events in Europe have intensified, it hasn’t been the safe haven of choice.

That honor goes to U.S. bonds and the U.S. dollar, which continue moving higher.

This is what happened in 2007-08 and the markets provided signals prior to the meltdown ... With the debt crisis in Europe and the U.S. now reaching nerve wracking levels as the daily drama continues, the stage is essentially set for some sort of accident that could dramatically affect all of the markets. Hopefully, it won't happen, but it could.

WHAT TO DO?

Over the years, we've found that the major market trends are by far the most important in maintaining perspective and maximizing profits. These drown out short-term movements, which can be confusing, and keep you focused on the big picture.

Currently, the major uptrends favor U.S. bonds and gold. Even though gold could decline further, if it does, it'll provide a good buying opportunity. As for cash, the U.S. dollar is best.

The major trends do not favor stocks, commodities or the currency markets. These major trends are down.

This could change, but for now we'd focus on major uptrend investments and avoid or cut back on markets where the trends are down.

Remember, sometimes it's best to simply stand aside and this appears to be one of those times.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1:53 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Claudia Assis
Gold futures ended lower Friday, as gains for stocks and oil futures fizzled and but a rising U.S. dollar kept the metal under $1,700 an ounce. Other metals tracked gold lower, with silver bearing the brunt of the losses.
Gold settles 0.6% lower at $1,685.70 an ounce
1:00 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011
Gold settles 0.6% lower at $1,685.70 an ounce
12:13 p.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Wallace Witkowski
Canadian stocks rise, led by real estate sector. SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Canadian stocks traded higher Friday led by the real estate sector. The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 0.1% led by the S&P/TSX Capped Real Estate Index, which advanced
Gold turns higher, up 0.1% at $1,698 an ounce
10:42 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011
Gold turns higher, up 0.1% at $1,698 an ounce
9:00 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By MarketWatch
Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce Goldfutures drop below $1,700 an ounce on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rises against other major currencies and stock futures point to opening losses for Wall Street.
8:35 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Polya Lesova
In the commodity markets, December gold futures dropped $19 to $1,676.9 an ounce in electronic trading on Globex.
7:59 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By MarketWatch
Metals Stocks: Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce Gold futures drop below $1,700 an ounce on Friday, as the U.S. dollar rises against other major currencies and stock futures point to opening losses for Wall Street.
12:01 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - By Chuck Jaffe
Gold, for example, looks like a strong investment, but average investors don’t need to take a chance on some junior mining penny-stock pitched in an e-mail. They should not risk coming up with fool’s goldwhen the real thing is what they want. 6) Spokespeople who don’t like answering questions Recently I was at a conference and walked up to a booth in the exhibit hall.
12:01 a.m. Nov. 25, 2011 - MarketWatch.com
There are also 45 hedge funds with positions in Gold ETF
1:45 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - By Virginia Harrison
Gold futures extend falls in Asian trading . Gold futures extend declines, and most other metals trade down ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.. Gold futures extend declines, and most other metals trade down ahead of the Thanksgiving
6:17 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - MarketWatch
During the first nine months of the year, Antofagasta reported a 32% revenue rise to $4.17 billion, mainly reflecting the impact of higher realized copper prices and copper volumes compared with the same period in 2010, as well as higher volumes of gold sales.
2:33 a.m. Nov. 24, 2011 - By Peter Brimelow
The best/worst results in recent years illustrate that the short-term moves can be breathtaking.” Sound Mind’s inflation hedge recommendation: Gamco Gold Fund American Century Real Estate Fund Investor PowerShares Dynamic Energy Sector Portfolio BLDRS Emerging Markets 50 ADS Index Fund
9:46 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By MarketWatch
Going for mutual-fund gold Morningstar's new mutual-fund ratings grade more than just past performance, and that's good for investors, Marketwatch Columnist Chuck Jaffe says.
5:00 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By MarketWatch
Gold ends at loss but off session lows Gold futures finish lower ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, engulfed by concerns surrounding Germany’s failed bond auction as metals traders wouldn’t get behind safe-haven buying.
4:55 p.m. Nov. 23, 2011 - By Nicole Hong
Metals and mining stocks led decliners in Toronto, as prices of gold, silver and copper futures all dropped.

No comments: