Sabtu, 17 Disember 2011
Mendapatkan maklumat pembacaan mengenai pergerakan harga emas pada minggu hadapan, ramai pakar pelaburan bersetuju harga emas akan bull mengikut harga penutupan sebagai harga support yang baru setelah mengalami kelembapan perjalanan ditutup pada USD1597.90/oz pada sesi pasaran hadapan Februari New York Mercantile Exchange.
Hasil tinjauan Kitco:
"In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 31 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those 22 participants, 14 see prices up, while eight see prices down, and zero see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and
technical chart analysts."
Ramai mengatakan harga emas akan menemui kembali harga di kaki carta.
Several market watchers said the $1,560 area, followed by the $1,530 area, are two very important technical chart points for gold to hold above next week if it is to consolidate this week’s break. Thursday’s low was $1,562.50 for the February contract and $1,534.80 is the September low, based on continuation charts.
Walau bagaimanapun pakar-pakar pelaburan mengatakan sebaliknya:
1. Phillip Streible, senior market strategist, R.J. O’Brien, said he’d feel more comfortable about gold’s upside potential if the market could close above $1,607. “If we could do that, we could start a leg up, but there are so many levels of resistance it’s not even funny,” he said.
2. Other technical analysts said given that gold gave up nearly $200 an ounce in a swift rout, the market has entered oversold status and can see a modest bounce for that reason. Upside limits for gold next week are around $1,640, they said.3. Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist at Olympus Futures, said the action of the U.S. dollar index will be important to gold. If the dollar pulls back, that will give gold – and other commodities – more room to rise.
4. Adrian Day, president, Adrian Day Asset Management, said next week would be a tough call, but he ultimately expects higher prices. “Fundamentals remain very positive for gold: easy money in the U.S. and Europe in particular; a lack of confidence in paper money and monetary authorities; central banks continuing to diversify foreign reserve holdings (some of into gold). But the damage done this week may take a little while to get over; in truth, it is not unexpected if an asset that went way above trend (gold in July and August) corrects to under trend, so by no means is this the end of the bull market for gold,” he says.
5. Anthony Neglia, president of Tower Trading, sell any rallies to raise cash. "Any bounce has to be sold ... We are in a trading range unless we get back and over $1,650 an ounce," he said. Neglia had a price target for gold in 2012 of $2,000 an ounce based on traders buying those contracts in the future -- "I still haven't seen a bailout of our higher price and longer dated positions [but] right now everything is about the dollar."
6. James Moore, research analyst for FastMarkets.com, said that part of Friday's rally is short-covering -- in which traders buy back previously sold shares at a lower price and pocket the difference -- as well as bargain-hunting as the metal is extremely oversold.
"However, the threat of further liquidation will continue in the run-up to year-end, with thin conditions to magnify the problem," he said.
Volume tends to thin out towards the end of the year which can exaggerate any price swings. Big gains in gold might be capped by a firmer U.S. dollar index which was still stubbornly above the $80 level.